Many experts, nowadays, attempt to investigate the various scenarios that ISIS might adopt in the coming future. The constricted situation in Syria and Iraq would push the organization to move en route for new spaces, i.e. Libya. Libya, one of the most attracting places for ISIS today; Libya’s wide geographical space, its borders with African countries, its chaotic status , and the shores on the Mediterranean has pushed the terrorist group to think of initiating a new base there. ISIS would seize various factors to impose its brutal authority in Libya such as: the circumstances of political chaos in the country, particularly when Libya is still governmentally instable,. Such acts should call for international support through the security council which still will take more time to be achieved.
On the other hand, the preparations for the battle of liberation of Mousql and Raqqa from Daesh are still going on; USA, apparently, persists to have the key role in these operations. Although many reports have confirmed the interference of chemical weapons (Mustard Gas, Sarin) from Daesh’s side, the expected reactions of the terrorist group are still hard to be predicted. This would make the US or any coalition very cautious regarding any direct military intervention. Reversely, losing the “Caliphate” main base means the fall of the so called “Islamic state”, yet the concept of the caliphate will not fall easily. This means that the risk of having a new versions of Daesh claiming to be the caliphate’s representative will always be there.
The attack on Daesh in its base might provoke various reactions, above all, the attempt by the terrorist group to give a global dimension to its reactions. Most of the security reports believe that the phase that Daesh anticipates Al Raqqa and Mosul battles will seek to widen the battle by targeting different places to create a status of panic and disorder to the global security. The “surprise strategy” is the one expected to be adopted by Daesh, especially that many reports have highlighted many of the new tactics of the terrorist group, mainly the recruitment of “kids” and women to conduct operation.
Many are shocked by the various scenarios that Daesh might conduct. The terrorist group will struggle to conduct extremely brutal operations that will make up the loss of any territory, and at the same time prove that Daesh was not affected by any loss. The new confrontation that Daesh seeks to achieve will be a global one, where simply every country might be subjected to attacks. Therefore, “lone actors” maybe the main protagonists in any coming confrontation, as the recent events proved that one individual terrorist can drain the resources of many security services in any country while they are searching for him. What is needed today is avoid falling in the trap of terrorist threat and keep away from reacting wrongly to these risks. The coming challenges might be untraditional ones; yet facing these risks should push decision makers not only to focus merely on security, but also to invest excessively in human building. Despite the fact that many security experts believe that the coming phase would witness some attacks in different countries, the major issue to do is to focus on how to eliminate the roots of terrorism along with taking precautions against the terrorist risks. In fact, if the continuous breeding of these groups continues, brutality and violence would increase, as the issue of declaration of the Caliphate by Daesh make many fanatics see the current battle as “Armageddon” or the final battle.
Dr. Amer Al Sabaileh
Amer Al Sabaileh
Director of Security Languages - Senior political and security analyst
